I’ve got a lazy Sunday ahead of me, and the election is two days away, so I’m going to use this little window to put down some thoughts as it might be hard to remember how I feel after Tuesday, regardless of the result. (Certainly, I can’t relate anymore to the Soren who existed on Nov. 7, 2016.)

First off, if you are eligible, it’s your duty as a citizen to vote for Kamala Harris. This statement has nothing to do with policy; indeed, I am sympathetic to 2016 Trump voters. Due to undemocratic institutions like the Electoral College, the Senate, and the gerrymandered House, the American political system is not responsive to its own electorate, and I think voting for someone who is completely outside the bounds of the status quo is understandable, just to see if something, anything, could change. Voting for him in 2020 is hard to understand given his horrible performance as president, but it’s nothing like voting for him a third time. Trump led an insurrection to overthrow the United States government. He is guilty of treason, and traitors like him should be in prison, not running for the country’s highest office. Voting for Trump in 2024 is an unconscionable act.

It’s clear that the Biden administration chose the worst possible path in dealing with Trump’s treason. Two logical paths existed in January 2021 – either prosecute Trump for the insurrection or immediately pardon him. There was a tiny window when he could have been impeached and barred from future office, but after Republican cowardice scuttled that opportunity, the new administration had to deal with the reality that he would run again in 2024. (Certainly, he will run again in 2028 if he loses in 2024. His most important source of power and income comes from a permanent presidential campaign.) The best choice would have been to prosecute him immediately given the inevitable roadblocks that his lawyers would create and to avoid prosecuting a presidential nominee. The other (although worse) choice would have been to pardon Trump to avoid a useless battle down the road that could not be resolved before the 2024 election (which would also force Trump to pursue the presidency at all costs to avoid prosecution). The worst possible option was to start a prosecution two years too late, which would have no hope of resolving itself before the election. After that election, he would either be president (and would halt the federal prosecutions) or would have lost again (and would then would be a much less significant threat to the country). In other words, what could a too late prosecution possibly accomplish besides giving one side an excuse to complain about weaponizing the Justice Department?

I know I’m tired of The Most Important Elections Of My Lifetime happening every four years. We didn’t know how good we had it back when we were choosing between Obama and either McCain or Romney. However, if Trump is re-elected, it’s important to remember a few things. First of all, Trump only has a shot at becoming president because the US does not elect its presidents democratically. 2.9 million more Americans voted for Hillary Clinton than for Trump, and 7.1 million more voted for Joe Biden. In fact, the infamous Electoral College victory of 2016 was a much MORE democratic result than the one from 2020. Against Clinton, Trump lost by 2.9M votes but won because of 76K votes in MI, WI, and PA. In contrast, Biden beat Trump by 7.1M votes but could have lost the election with 104K fewer votes in AZ, GA, and PA. (Practically speaking, the voters of Pennsylvania get to decide who becomes president.)

Ultimately, the problem is not that the system is flawed and unfair; the problem is that the system’s incentives have warped the Republican party so much that they no longer even try to appeal to the American public. Consider that over the last 36 years, Republican presidential candidates have only ONCE won the popular vote, and that was DURING A WAR. If presidents were elected democratically, the GOP would be forced to adopt more popular policies, or they would cease to exist as as a viable national party. As a game designer, I am well aware that water finds a crack; the Republican party is taking a rational approach to how our system works. The answer is not to hope that the GOP magically starts to care about what the American people want; the answer is to change the system, which may sound hopeless, but there are always little changes that could make a difference. Ranked-choice voting, for example, is at least a stab at avoiding ideologically extreme choices.

Furthermore, if Trump wins the Electoral College, it will be important to determine whether the Republicans won the presidency because of Trump or in spite of him. It’s easy to forget just how unpopular Donald Trump is. Consider the remarkable chart below, showing that Joe Biden is the only candidate in my lifetime to get more votes than there were non-voters in the country. Certainly, that result is not evidence of how much Americans love Joe Biden; it’s evidence of how much they dislike Trump. There was a previously invisible 5% of the electorate that came out just to vote against Trump.

Given generic candidates, it’s likely that the party out of power would win the 2024 presidency in a walk. Democrats have held the White House for 12 of the last 16 years, and the Biden administration experienced historically high inflation, which should be enough for a non-problematic Republican to win the election easily, perhaps even challenging the popular vote. Our system tends to alternate parties in the presidency every eight years; it’s unimaginable that it could ever extend past double that. (The only time that happened was thanks to the Great Depression and World War II.) Because a Republican will inevitably become president again, the greatest danger to our nation is not Trump but that one of our parties could nominate someone like Trump. Part of the problem is that our parties have undemocratic nomination processes; remember that in 2016, only a plurality of Republicans voted for Trump in the primaries, and if the GOP had used the more democratic (though still problematic) primary rules of the Democrats, Trump would not have been guaranteed the nomination before the convention.

I wish I had more to say about how to solve these problems rather than just identifying them. In times like these, it’s important to remember that nothing is permanent in politics, regardless of how entrenched things seem. Consider the 1976 electoral map, which is completely unrecognizable today. Carter, the Democrat, rides to victory by sweeping the South while the Republican Ford dominates the West Coast and also picks up Illinois, Michigan, and New Jersey!

Furthermore, as William Goldman said, “Nobody knows anything.” Biden’s withdrawal from the race in favor of Harris is the obviously correct move in retrospect, but what political scientist possibly could have predicted this sudden 16-point favorability swing immediately after she became the nominee, which was also a much smoother process than anyone could have predicted.

I’m not sure where we will all be the morning of Nov. 6, but even if Trump wins, his inevitable destination will still be the same place – the dustbin of American villains, right next to Richard Nixon, Joseph McCarthy, John Calhoun, Nathan Bedford Forrest, and Charles Coughlin. Trump doesn’t represent the wishes of the American people, and it will be up to us to push for a better world in ways that are not hamstrung by our undemocratic systems inherited from the eighteenth century. If Harris wins, however, it’s important to remember that a correct result is not the same thing as a correct process; we are only delaying problems for another four years when Trump will run again if the judicial process fails the country.

Most importantly, no matter what change is possible, no one political system will ever protect us all from our worst instincts, just as no one disaster will ever mute the best of us. Same as it ever was.