Next Gen Buries the Lede

Yesterday, Next Generation released a listing of the best-selling games over the last 12 months. (Note the detail here – these are the best-selling games released and sold during the arbitrary period March 1, 2007 to March 1, 2008.) Today, they published an analysis of the data, including a remarkable graph on platform exclusives.

Obviously, it is no surprise that Nintendo rules the roost here with exclusives as their platforms have such unique user interfaces. However, there is another platform up here with a completely unique interface and yet a tiny number of exclusives – the PC. Apparently, the PC had only one exclusive title released in the last twelve months which showed up in the top 100 sales list. This is so appalling that I need to write it again: only one non-port PC game released last year was among the top 100 in sales!*

I find it bizarre to even think of native PC games as “exclusives” as it’s a format without an owner but also one with such a long, storied history. The chart will probably looks significantly different next year with the release of Spore and whichever Blizzard product comes out next. If nothing else, this chart emphasizes that the middle of the PC retail industry has disappeared entirely. Franchises like Civilization and Age of Empires and StarCraft are still quite safe, but oft-kilter games from major publishers like Majesty and Sacrifice and Tropico are gone, gone, gone, and they are not coming back.

All of this is not to say that the PC market is doomed. In fact, quite the opposite is happening as today – right now! – is the most profitable time in history to be making games on the PC. From Blizzard earning literally billions from World of Warcraft to PopCap crossing the $100 million revenue barrier from selling casual games to the untold millions Steam and its games are making from direct distribution.

Furthermore, a stealth PC games industry is emerging that is only slowing beginning to receive mainstream recognition. Indies are experiencing significant success, such as Ironclad’s Sins of a Solar Empire or Vic Davis’s Armageddon Empires. More importantly, however, small teams which approach games as a service, not a product, are showing the real future of PC gaming: MapleStory, Habbo Hotel, Puzzle Pirates, and so on. The Gower brothers, creators of the web-based MMO Runescape, are now the 654th richest men in the UK, each worth over $200 million.

Many developers do not consider these products as part of the games industry proper – at GDC this year, Cryptic Studios’s Creative Director Jack Emmert revealed, shockingly, that he had never even heard of MapleStory – but this too will change. With the Web’s explosive and continued growth, people are certainly using their PC’s more than ever. Accordingly, the PC games market should dwarf all other games markets in the long run. The market, however, will never be the same as it was during PC gaming’s “golden days” of the late-90s.

PC Games are Dead! Love Live PC Games!

*OK, actually more than one. I certainly would not claim that The Orange Box is a console game ported to the PC. That product messes with categorization in so many ways! Also, as Tom points out below, C&C 3 and Football Manager (and a couple others) are certainly PC-focused also. By the way, anyone want to guess what the only PC-exclusive title was to show up on that list? Don’t cheat and look it up!

Did I Get My Wish?

A few weeks ago, I was approached by Games for Windows Magazine to write a short piece for a “Three Wishes” article in the April/May issue. The idea would be to answer the question “If you could make a wish and have a programmer suddenly make any technology, however outlandish, available to you to make games, what would it be — and why?”

I wrote the following:

A Self-Service Digital Distribution Network

Digital Distribution is key to a bright future for PC Gaming. First, it tilts the economics strongly in favor of both the developer and – once retail is challenged – the consumer. Further, with services like Steam or TotalGaming, DRM is a bonus, not a penalty, as players can download their games to any PC in the world with an Internet connection.

However, Valve and Stardock – regardless of their commitment to independent developers – are still acting as gatekeepers; their services are not the same thing as a truly free marketplace. I would love to see a robust digital distribution system that worked something
like Amazon’s WebStores. Developers could sign-up using an automated system to upload their game, set prices, and manage their hosted pages. The owners would take a standard cut from all sales, and updates and support would be the responsibility of the developers. Some would falter under so much freedom, but the best talent – and the best games – would rise to the top.

As if on cue at GDC, Microsoft announced the long-rumored Xbox Live Community, an automated system for amateur game developers to share games built on the XNA framework with the entire Live community, including non-paying Silver members. The system will use peer review to keep out objectionable, copyrighted, or broken content. For the normally restrictive company, this move is quite bold and appears to be the real deal for bedroom coders hoping to find an audience in the console world.

So, did I get my wish? Obviously, my hope was for the PC market, but console environments have the same needs for an open market. The real question is pricing – will these games always be free? If not, what cut will Microsoft take? If the quality of the best XNA games is as high as I suspect them to be, this service will place independent developers of official Live Arcade games in an odd position, especially considering the recent royalty rate cuts. How will new independent IP be able to compete with free? Alternatively, if amateurs can charge for their games, why then should indies go through the much more rigorous certification process for official games? Obviously, Microsoft will put marketing resources and dashboard promotions behind official titles, but – if amateurs can charge for their games – the lines are about to get very blurry.

I fear that Microsoft will never allow the XNA developers to charge for their games, treating the Live Community like the minor leagues, from which they will “promote” popular titles to official status. While Microsoft would still deserve accolades for opening up their system like this, a genuine market ecosystem can only develop if these independents developers are able to make their own decisions and set their own prices. The opportunity here is tremendous, as Xbox Live – with so many users already used to buying MS Points – has already closed the penny gap. The games industry needs markets that are managed in certain ways (Points, distribution, community) and free in other ways (pricing, automated approval). I hope Microsoft finds the right combination.

The Rest of the Interview

The rest of my interview with Kieron Gillen, of Rock Paper Shotgun, has come on-line in two parts.

The “Making of Civ4” part is on RPS. Here’s an excerpt:

Soren: But I don’t think I thought as hard as I should have about the implications of making a strategy game in 3D where the worlds are going to be as big as they are in Civ. Because one of the first things a lot of people do when playing Civ is, “Well, I want to play a game. What’s the most number of Civs I can have? What’s the largest map I can have?” and beyond that “Okay… it’s 200 by 100. Is this in an XML file? Great. Now I’m going to have a map that’s 500 by 1000.” People want to play these giant maps in Civ, and it’s a real challenge to make that scaleable in 3D. To make a 3D game, you have to maintain a certain amount of data for everything that’s in the world somewhere, even if it’s not on the screen. You can make lots of optimisations, but you’re still keeping track of a lot of entities in the world, somewhere. It’s not as if there’s different levels – everything has to be around somewhere. Whereas in a 2D game, it can – in a sense – be as big as you want. You’re only showing X number of tiles on the screen, and you’re just swapping out the graphics for them. So when the game came out we had some major performance issues for that reason. And it’s tough. We needed some sort of streaming solution, but that’s very unusual for a strategy game where the player expects to be able to jump to any location on the map at any time in one frame. 3D is a big challenge, and it’s really important to think through what you’re trying to do with 3D and if it’s really possible to keep that much stuff in memory at a time.

A lot of people said they liked seeing the game in 3D – being able to zoom right in real close, to zoom out, to see the world spin around. It was a good thing for the project, but… sometimes I wonder what it would’ve be like if we had just stayed on the 2D train for 4. It’s weird. The gameplay could be the exact same. There’s no point where the graphics changed the way we would have written the game rules – it’s still a board game inside your computers. With 2D, we wouldn’t have had the same performance issues and we’d have been able to prototype the game perhaps even faster than we did – there’s a lot of stuff we were waiting for because we were developing this 3D strategy engine as we were going along. Further, 2D strategy games are in general more accessible than 3D ones because the abstraction is more obvious when you are looking at some sort of standardized 2D tile system. We had no end of trouble get people to see where the “tile” was in our 3D world for Civ4. So, 2D vs. 3D… It’s one of those things I’ll never know. I mean, I’m glad we went for 3D, just for no other reason than that we were stretching what we were doing with the Civilization series. We were tackling new territory. We weren’t just repeating ourselves. But everything has its trade-offs, and going 3D was no exception.

RPS: So what influenced your thinking with the team game?

Soren: Age of Kings really showed me how good a strategy game could be if they took the time to balance it well. They really thought long and hard how everything stuck together. You really had multiple ways to play the game, which usually manifested itself in you being a cavalry guy or a ranged guy or a melee guy or focusing on a specific unit. Which is just cool. Also, it’s really fun to play teamed multiplayer games.

Which really solved the problem for multiplayer in Civ. There had been some attempts to make Civ a multiplayer game before Civ 4, and I don’t think anyone would look at them as being big successes. Usually that’s because we weren’t thinking very hard about the actual dynamic inside a multiplayer game of Civ. We were looking a a direct mapping of the game. If you play a game of Civ in singleplayer, it’s almost a story . You’re a king, and there’s all these other AI civs. And we write the game rules so it’s fun for you to play. The most important thing is how they relate to you. And if you get screwed, and you have a bad starting location, you’re still in charge – you just have to restart the game, or quit and roll a new map, or whatever. That’s what makes the game work. The player is in control.

RPS: Which clearly isn’t true if there’s other people to think of, yeah?

Soren: If you’re in 8 player multiplayer in Civ, it’s going to be a mess. Obviously, there’s the turn-based issue of waiting for people to play, but most importantly the games are going to take a long time, and it’s going to be fairly clear who are the people who can win and the people who are going to be also-rans. There’s just no motivation to keep on playing at that point. So if you play a game of Civ in MP, one player starts doing really well and takes a lot of time with their turns, and the other guy who’s doing poorly and obviously is going to lose, he’s always waiting for the other guy. It’s just not a really fun gameplay experience in multiplayer. When we started testing Civ 4 in MP – which is something we did right at the beginning of the project and not worrying about singleplayer until much later – it was fun and nice that we finally had the tech to make it work, and it was still kind of engaging to play Civ with a real person across the border… but there was something which always made it spiral out of control.

Finally, we learned lessons from games like Age of Kings and Starcraft and all these other RTS. It’s just standard that team-play is a big focus. We started adopting that. We’ve got six people playing and have two sides of three and see what happened… though it took a while for us to figure out what were the right rule-sets to use. Like, they probably should share technologies, and it’ll be silly for them to trade back and forth. And if they’re both researching the same tech, maybe it’ll go twice as fast. And then someone suggested that maybe they should share the effects of wonders… well, let’s try it out and see what happens. Sounds overpowered, but on the other hand we don’t want rivalries inside the teams. “He got the Pyramids! Damn, I wanted that effect.”

RPS: The complete opposite of Defcon. An ally is just who you stab last.

Soren: Which fits the shorter game. Nuclear war, after all. But we thought it was really important in Civ. Obviously, you don’t have to play in teams. You can have unofficial alliances if you want. But we felt it was important in the team game to be permanent – you knew who you were with at the beginning and it wasn’t going to change. Which totally changed the dynamic – it was so much fun. Firstly, people could specialise. I’ll focus on wonders, because I like building, and you can focus on military. People were helping each other out; co-op is a lot of fun. If the tide starts to turn and it’s clear that one side is going to win, well, you just start over. You don’t have to worry about some people wanting to start over and others not. There’s only two teams after all. And actually a lot of the MP I hear about in Civ 4, is like a dad and son playing against the AI at a higher difficulty level. And that’s totally legitimate too. We definitely picked up those lessons from playing a lot of RTS. At Firaxis we were hard, hardcore players of Age of Kings. We figured out every nuance of that game.

The print portion with PC Gamer UK has shown up on CVG. Here are some more quotes:

Why make games at all?

Johnson: It’s a field where you’re writing the rules right now. Some day 100 years from now, they’re going to writing about the stuff we do now, because this is the crucial moment for games. Beyond that… well, 100 years ago, if I’d been born, I think I might be making board games. It’s not just games for me – I come from a real board game, strategy game backdrop.

This is what I’m about. I feel that games are such a broad category. You can do so much with games. People put it up and compare it to… well, are games like music or movies or books? I see games not like a new medium, but a new way of communicating – a new language, so much broader than a specific artistic medium.

It’s so fascinating to work on. Your imagination keeps on rolling when you’re dealing with games. In all the other media, you feel as if you’re eventually going to some kind of limitation, but with games there’s no idea that’s so far off the wall that you don’t think “Hmm, I guess we could make that work some way or another.”

Games kind of hark back to the days before the schism of art and science, in that technological progress can also be artistic progress…

Johnson: I know if I was around 200 years ago… How cool it’d be to have these great scientists who are really into music and whatever, and you could actually have most of modern knowledge in your brain at one time. 200 years ago, that was theoretically possible and is a neat idea.

I find a lot of game designers just have a ravenous appetite for stuff. Will Wright is the classic example. There’s nothing which doesn’t interest him in some way.

And this is another thing I really like about writing about games, especially games which aren’t about some made up fantasy world… when I was working on Civ, there’s literally nothing I can do or experience or learn which doesn’t relate somehow to my job.

You majored in History. That ties in with Civilization too.

Johnson: It’s just very interesting to me. Here’s history… and here’s this new language of interactivity. Can this be combined in an interesting way? Is this the way to jump ahead or to the side of this giant long tradition of history and prose? I found that very interesting. I used to find it a lot more interesting than I do now.

The more you get into designing games, the more you find the medium and language has huge possibilities, but also has specific limitations. The entire idea of player agency means certain topics aren’t going to be appropriate.

For instance, in world history, one of the most important books of the last 10 or 15 years is Jared Diamond’s Guns, Germs and Steel… He’s saying that all history is determined by geography. I read that before working on Civ III, and was all pumped up – there’s all these great concepts which you could put to work in a macro world-history game.

The thing is, if you make a Civ game based off the ideas in Guns, Germs and Steel, it’d suck. The whole point is that there aren’t choices that determine whether a civilisation does well or poorly – it’s whether you have the right crops. Do you have the right animals? Are you in the right place? In early versions of Civ IV, we tried.

Horses will always be on one continent and not another. We’ll show people how this stuff works. But it didn’t work in terms of gameplay. It felt unfair.

Blasts from the Past

By strange coincidence, I’ve been e-mailed twice over the last week by different people asking for a peek at the source code for some of my older academic projects (Oxford Mercer and Advanced Protection). I have some further info concerning these works on my old-school Stanford home page, but the source has always resided somewhere deep within my archives. After doing some digging, I zipped up both projects (as well as GridRunner) and added links to the code under the My Games section. Enjoy!

A Farewell to Civ

Well, it’s that time of year again; GDC is almost upon us! I will be giving my third official GDC talk, entitled Playing to Lose: AI & “Civilization”. Unfortunately, it’s in the dreaded 9:00 AM slot, and since this is the first GDC where I will be sleeping at home instead of a nearby hotel, I better make sure I master the BART schedule and get there on time! Here’s the summary:

Playing to Lose: AI and “CIVILIZATION”
Speaker: Soren Johnson (Designer & Programmer, EA Maxis)
Date/Time: Thursday (February 21, 2008) 9:00am — 10:00am
Location (room): Room 2018, West Hall
Track: Game Design
Secondary Track: Programming
Experience Level: Intermediate

Session Description
Artificial intelligence performs a crucial role for any strategy game, providing a compelling opponent for solo play. While many of the challenges of AI development are technical, there are also significant design challenges as well. Can the AI behave like a human? Should it? Should the game design be adjusted to accommodate the limitations of the AI? Should the AI be exposed to modders? How do we make the AI fun? Should the AI cheat? If so, how much? Do we even want the AI to win? This session suggests some possible answers to these questions using the “CIVILIZATION” series as a case study. Ultimately, games are many things to many different people; fantasy, competition, narrative, even construction set, and the best AI will support as many different approaches to the game world as possible.

Idea Takeaway
This lecture is intended primarily for game designers and AI programmers who would like a deeper understanding of the consequences of high-level AI development decisions on the final product. Further, important lessons will also be shared for all developers interested in crafting a compelling single-player experience.

Intended Audience
Attendees will leave with a better understanding of the difference between a “good” AI and a “fun” one. Furthermore, they will learn the trade-offs inherent in deciding between the two options.

Essentially, I will be talking about the difference between thinking of the AI as the player’s opponent and thinking of it as simply an extension of the core game design (what one might call the difference between “good” AI and “fun” AI). There will also be a long section on AI cheating – the bane of my existence for many years – concerning which type of cheats are acceptable to players and which type are not, using Civ as an extensive case study. Further, I hope to prove that, for Civ at least, there is no such thing as – and never could be – a “fair” difficulty level where the AI is playing the same game as the human. Your mileage , of course, might vary.

This talk will be a bit of milestone for me as, presumably, this will be the last time I’ll be giving such an extensive talk on Civ. In fact, I feel a little sheepish about giving it as a non-Firaxis employee. I’m so used to getting feedback from my old colleagues on my presentations that I can’t seem to shake the feeing that now I’m just some dude spouting off about Civ, and the world already has plenty of those!

At any rate, hope to see some of you there…

Ticket to Ride

This is not a review of Ticket to Ride, which is – needless to say – a wonderful game, both for experienced gamers and for those weened on Monopoly and Life. If you’ve never played it, stop reading right now and go here to play for free. (Their publisher, Days of Wonder, has an interesting business model as well – their online games are free-to-play but pay-to-host.)

No, what I would like to talk about is the story of Ticket to Ride. Since you have played the game (seriously, just go do it), reflect for a moment on what the game is about. During the game, you lay tracks to connect distant cities while trying to block your opponents from finishing their own routes. There are sub goals too, like having the longest contiguous rail line and completing your network first, which ends the game for everyone. It’s essentially a simplified version of Railroad Tycoon, right? Right?

Let me quote from first page of the game rules:

On a blustery autumn evening five old friends met in the backroom of one of the city’s oldest and most private clubs. Each had traveled a long distance – from all corners of the world – to meet on this very specific day… October 2, 1900 – 28 years to the day that the London eccentric, Phileas Fogg, accepted and then won a £20,000 bet that he could travel Around the World in 80 Days.

Each succeeding year, they met to celebrate the anniversary and pay tribute to Fogg. And each year a new expedition (always more difficult) was proposed. Now at the dawn of the century it was time for a new impossible journey. The stakes: $1 Million in a winner-takes-all competition. The objective: to see which of them could travel by rail to the most cities in North America – in just 7 days.

Ticket to Ride is a cross-country train adventure. Players compete to connect different cities by laying claim to railway routes on a map of North America.

What?!? This storyline makes the game sound almost like a spiritual successor to Around the World in 80 Days instead of what it actually is – another link in the great chain of railroad tycoon games. The fiction simply does not match the gameplay. For example, why does a player “claim” a route just by riding on it? Do the trains shut down, preventing anyone else from using that line? On the other hand, “claiming” routes matches perfectly with the fiction of ruthless rail barons trying to monopolize the best connections.

This disconnect leads to some interesting questions. Does a game’s designer have the right to tell us what the “story” is if it doesn’t match what’s going on inside our own heads while we are playing the game? And if the designer doesn’t have this right, then does a game’s official “story” ever matter at all because it can be invalidated so easily? However, setting the game in the world of trains was clearly very important – if Ticket to Ride was a game about bus lines, I doubt it would have nearly the same resonance. Once again, setting trumps story in importance…